NRAT — Narrative Risk Appraisal Techniques for CIMIC Decision-Support: A Practical Method for CIMIC Operators to Counter Disinformation in Hybrid Environments

In contemporary hybrid operational environments, civil information can trigger observable behavioural change faster than formal intelligence validation cycles allow. Civil-Military Cooperation (CIMIC) staff elements are therefore increasingly required to make consequential engagement decisions under conditions of high uncertainty and acute time pressure — before attribution is confirmed, before verification is complete, and before the full picture of a narrative’s origin or intent has emerged. This paper introduces the Narrative Risk Appraisal Techniques (NRAT) framework, a lightweight and structured decision-support prototype designed to help CIMIC practitioners operate within this decision gap. NRAT organises the analytical process into a compressed five-step cycle — Signal, Competing Explanations, Indicators, Civil Risk Projection, and Action — designed to be conducted rapidly through a structured staff discussion. Rather than seeking evidentiary certainty, the framework structures competing explanations, projects civil risk across four operational dimensions (freedom of movement, force protection, mission legitimacy, and escalation probability), and supports proportionate engagement recommendations under conditions of incomplete information. Using the 2022 Gossi incident as an illustrative stress-test case, the paper shows how the framework can be applied in practice and how it may be positioned within existing CIMIC doctrine, supporting Civil Factor Integration (CFI) and Civil-Military Interaction (CMI) without bypassing formal intelligence processes. The paper also discusses the conceptual foundations of NRAT, its relationship to established Structured Analytic Techniques (SATs), its doctrinal relevance, and its limitations and the need for further empirical validation. Its central proposition is that structured judgement under uncertainty should be treated as an operational capability that the CIMIC function can deliberately develop.

Brief authors biography:

• Riccardo Pastore is an independent researcher working on intelligence analysis, OSINT, and civil-military cooperation, with particular interests in risk assessment, hybrid threats, information warfare, and structured decision-support in complex operational environments. He is based in Milan, Italy. ORCID: 0009-0004-9510-989X.
• Alice Felli is an independent researcher working on OSINT and intelligence analysis, with interests in cyber and linguistic intelligence, social media analysis, and digital threat environments. Her work combines OSINT, SOCMINT, IMINT, and Virtual HUMINT approaches to support situational awareness and decision-making in complex information settings. She is based in Rome, Italy. ORCID: 0009-0009-7600-2508.

Editorial Direction: Alice FELLI